Science and Technology
Global temperatures set to break records during next 5 years.

Global temperatures set to break records during next 5 years

Science and Technology

Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, according to a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Wednesday.

There is a 66 per cent likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027, will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.

And there is a 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period, will be the warmest on record.

“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” it said.

It suggested there is a 66 per cent chance of this being recorded at least once between now and 2027, as scientists predict the globe will experience one of the warmest years on record in the next five years.

Britain's Met Office, on behalf of the WMO, has predicted a 98 per cent chance of this occurring.

The WMO forecast is among a number of findings in its Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update report, which was published on Wednesday.

It predicts a two-in-three chance that global average temperatures in at least one of the next five years will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C limit ratified in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The report comes shortly after the world's fourth warmest April since records began in 1950 and months ahead of the Cop28 summit in the UAE.

The hottest eight years ever recorded were all between 2015 and 2022, but temperatures are forecast to increase further as climate change accelerates.

Leon Hermanson, one of the Met Office scientists behind the report, said: “We have never crossed 1.5°C. The current record is 1.28°C.